CONTROLLING CORPORATE TREASURY TRADING RISKS

In a corporation, there is no such thing as being perfectly hedged. Not every transaction can be matched, for international trade and production is a complex and uncertain business. As we have seen, even identifying the correct currency of exposure, the currency of determination, is tricky. Flexibility is called for, and management must necessarily give some discretion, perhaps even a lot of discretion, to the corporate treasury department or whichever unit is charged with managing foreign exchange risks. Some companies, feeling that foreign exchange is best handled by professionals, hire ex-bank dealers; other groom engineers or accountants. Yet however talented and honorable are these individuals, it has become evident that some limits must be imposed on the trading activities of the corporate treasury, for losses can get out of hand even in the best of companies.
In 1992 a Wall Street Journal reporter found that Dell Computer Corporation, a star of the retail PC industry, had been trading currency options with a face value that exceeded Dell's annual international sales, and that currency losses may have been covered up. Complex options trading was in part responsible for losses at the treasury of Allied-Lyons, the British foods group. The $150 million lost almost brought the company to its knees, and the publicity precipitated a management shake-out. In 1993 the oil giant Royal Dutch-Shell revealed that currency trading losses of as much as a billion dollars had been uncovered in its Japanese subsidiary.
Clearly, performance measurement standards, accountability and limits of some form must be part of a treasury foreign currency hedging program. Space does not permit a detailed examination of trading control methods, but some broad principles can be stated.
First, management must elucidate the goals of exchange risk management, preferably in operational terms rather than in platitudes such as "we hedge all foreign exchange risks."
Second, the risks of in-house trading (for that's often what it is) must be recognized. These include losses on open positions from exchange rate changes, counterparty credit risks, and operations risks.
Third, for all net positions taken, the firm must have an independent method of valuing, marking-to-market, the instruments traded. This marking to market need not be included in external reports, if the positions offset other exposures that are not marked to market, but is necessary to avert hiding of losses. Wherever possible, marking to market should be based on external, objective prices traded in the market.
Fourth, position limits should be made explicit rather than treated as "a problem we would rather not discuss." Instead of hamstringing treasury with a complex set of rules, limits can take the form of prohibiting positions that could incur a loss (or gain) beyond a certain amount, based on sensitivity analysis. As in all these things, any attempt to cover up losses should reap severe penalties.
Finally, counterparty risks resulting from over-the-counter forward or swap contracts should be evaluated in precisely the same manner as is done when the firm extends credit to, say, suppliers or customers.
In all this, the chief financial officer might well seek the assistance of an accounting or consulting firm, and may wish to purchase software tailored to the purposes.
CONCLUSIONS
This chapter offers the reader an introduction to the complex subject of the measurement and management of foreign exchange risk. We began by noting some problems with interpretation of the concept, and entered the debate as to whether and why companies should devote active managerial resources to something that is so difficult to define and measure.
Accountants' efforts to put an objective value on a firm involved in international business has led many to focus on the translated balance sheet as a target for hedging exposure. As was demonstrated, however, there are numerous realistic situations where the economic effects of exchange rate changes differ from those predicted by the various measures of translation exposure. In particular, we emphasized the distinctions between the currency of location, the currency of denomination, and the currency of determination of a business.
After giving some guidelines for the management of economic exposure, the chapter addressed the thorny question of how to approach currency forecasting. We suggested a market-based approach to international financial planning, and cast doubt on the ability of the corporation's treasury department to outperform the forward exchange rate.
The chapter then turned to the tools and techniques of hedging, contrasting the applications that require forwards, futures, money market hedging, and currency options.